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Non Gaming Discussions => Off-Topic => Topic started by: Mr. Kennedy on September 22, 2008, 06:50:40 AM

Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on September 22, 2008, 06:50:40 AM
As of 9/22/2008:

Sounds about right, not sure about Pennsylvania though.  Obama\'s got Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh, but nothing in between.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Jar O Pickles on September 22, 2008, 07:33:39 AM
Quote from: Mr. Kennedy
As of 9/22/2008:

Sounds about right, not sure about Pennsylvania though.  Obama\'s got Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh, but nothing in between.
theres stuff in between? all i saw were hills
penns got a democratic governor so im guessing most of the rest of the state will go dem as well as harrisburg area
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on September 22, 2008, 07:33:55 AM
New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan and PA are in play.  Any one of those goes to McCain and the election is his.

Polling can show a blurry picture, which I think this chart does, but there are a lot of things polls don\'t ask as well.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on September 22, 2008, 09:21:53 AM
I figured I\'d start a thread to track trends between now and the election.  I\'ll update this weekly.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on September 22, 2008, 10:16:07 AM
A new poll out now suggests 0bama will lose at least 6 percent of the vote due to his race.   The Bradley Effect.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on September 30, 2008, 04:32:55 AM
Rough week for McCain
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Eiksirf on September 30, 2008, 09:28:39 AM
The electoral vote is so stupid. Seeing all those zeroes... All the thousands and thousands of people who vote for a state\'s losing color... their votes get tossed.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Living-In-Clip on September 30, 2008, 10:21:08 AM
Yet another reason I don\'t vote.
Look at Kentucky..
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on September 30, 2008, 10:24:18 AM
Our founding fathers didn\'t trust us... and for good reason.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Living-In-Clip on September 30, 2008, 10:43:01 AM
Quote from: GigaShadow
Our founding fathers didn\'t trust us... and for good reason.


Dumbest logic ..ever
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on September 30, 2008, 11:09:20 AM
Quote from: Living-In-Clip
Dumbest logic ..ever


Why don\'t you do some reading about our founding fathers?  Who is the one with the degree in Political Science and who isn\'t again?
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GmanJoe on September 30, 2008, 11:09:32 AM
Quote from: Living-In-Clip
Dumbest logic ..ever


Let\'s hear your wisdom, oh great swami.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Coredweller on September 30, 2008, 12:05:00 PM
The electoral college system was devised during a time when there was no reliable method of collecting a popular vote on a national basis. It was as much a logistical choice as it was an ideological part of the Federal plan. That logistical argument is no longer valid.
 
BTW I have a history degree.  I just thought you should know that. :rolleyes:
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Eiksirf on September 30, 2008, 12:57:14 PM
I always knew the logistical explanation, but it wasn\'t until recently that I also heard they may have wanted a check in place in case we all voted in a Hitler or a "let\'s-join-england-again" guy or something.
 
Not sure that that\'s really a valid excuse, though.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Paul2 on September 30, 2008, 02:16:29 PM
who say anything about joining england again?  weren\'t the pilgrims migrated to America for religious freedom and the such?  Now that both countries are free countries.  Why bother joining England?
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Living-In-Clip on September 30, 2008, 02:28:58 PM
Quote from: GigaShadow
Why don\'t you do some reading about our founding fathers?  Who is the one with the degree in Political Science and who isn\'t again?


Who is the racist and who isn\'t again?
;)
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 07, 2008, 01:18:02 PM
Updated for this week...

I would also like to add... although its a bit dated, three more pieces illustrating the change that Obama will bring.  Since it does not favorably portray Obama, it is immediately going to be deemed "propaganda"... even though it is merely a statement of facts.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=PVKSfwfy0h8

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uud-fqelmaI&feature=related

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DggGZqYebrQ&feature=related
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Coredweller on October 07, 2008, 01:43:37 PM
Quote from: Mr. Kennedy
I would also like to add... although its a bit dated, three more pieces illustrating the change that Obama will bring. Since it does not favorably portray Obama, it is immediately going to be deemed "propaganda"... even though it is merely a statement of facts.
 
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=PVKSfwfy0h8 (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=PVKSfwfy0h8)
 
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uud-fqelmaI&feature=related (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=uud-fqelmaI&feature=related)
 
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DggGZqYebrQ&feature=related (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DggGZqYebrQ&feature=related)

Are you trying to state that Obama is not sufficiently anti-war, and use that as an argument for supporting McCain????  McCain is a greater war monger than even GW Bush.  
 
You are supporting McCain, right?  Or are you just arguing that Liberals should not vote for anyone?
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 07, 2008, 01:59:15 PM
I support neither candidate.  I support spreading the truth and that means exposing Obama for the fraud he is.

I stand by Ron Paul and the principles of the campaign for liberty.  I will be voting third party, not because I think they can win, but because I am a principled person.

McCain gets plenty of negative press, Obama is treated like a golden child who will save us from the apocalypse.  I am simply making people aware of the fact that he\'s no different than anyone else on the ticket, in fact, he\'s worse.  He\'s a socialist who will tear this country apart.

Obama goes against everything I stand for as a Libertarian, numero uno being liberty.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Jumpman on October 07, 2008, 02:32:02 PM
What\'s so wrong with socialism or forms of it?

It works.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 07, 2008, 03:20:10 PM
Quote from: Jumpman
What\'s so wrong with socialism or forms of it?

It works.


Tell that to the Soviet Union.

Doctors and Garbage Men should not be making the same amount of money.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 07, 2008, 03:24:04 PM
oh shit, you were being sarcastic again...

don\'t we have a sarcasm tag?
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Coredweller on October 07, 2008, 03:35:03 PM
He might be talking about the scandanavian nations, in which case it\'s not sarcastic at all.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 14, 2008, 12:47:03 PM
McCain will need a lot more than the Bradley effect to overcome these odds.

As a point of reference in 2004...

Kerry Leads Bush 49% to 43% In Ohio (October 22 2004)
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Eiksirf on October 14, 2008, 01:49:41 PM
What\'s the basis of the change in this survey? It seems pretty radical from week to week.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 14, 2008, 02:07:02 PM
it\'s based on who leads each state based on a collection of polls.

I would say anything in the 40-60% is still in play.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Coredweller on October 14, 2008, 02:47:11 PM
It would be easier to interpret the data at a glance if it showed actual poll numbers for each state instead of "% Chance of McCain Winning."
 
Where did you get this table?
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on October 15, 2008, 05:57:00 AM
I don\'t know... you can\'t take polls seriously.  After all Kerry was up on Bush by 11 pts around this time last election.  Polls are not that accurate in close races like this.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Coredweller on October 15, 2008, 06:15:49 AM
Quote from: GigaShadow
I don\'t know... you can\'t take polls seriously.  After all Kerry was up on Bush by 11 pts around this time last election.  Polls are not that accurate in close races like this.
Actually, no.  Bush was ahead of Kerry by a couple points at this time in the last presidential election.

(https://psx5central.com/community/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.realclearpolitics.com%2Fnews_images-on_site%2F3waybig.jpg&hash=300f5db1d92681fc147ad50d2fd1949c68a6286a)
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on October 15, 2008, 12:03:54 PM
Meant to say Gore/Bush
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Coredweller on October 15, 2008, 01:56:12 PM
And we all remember what happened that time. Gore won. :)
 
Besides, even that is not correct.  Bush was leading Gore in most polls around October 10th.
http://www.multied.com/elections/Polls.html (http://www.multied.com/elections/Polls.html)
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: GigaShadow on October 17, 2008, 07:19:37 PM
Army Times Poll...

http://www.militarytimes.com/static/projects/pages/081003_ep_2pp.pdf

McCain Obama


Overall 68 23


Army 68 23


Navy 69 24


Air Force 67 24


Marines 75 18


Retirees 72 20


White Non-Hispanic 76 17


Hispanic 63 27


Black/African-American 12 79

This isn\'t about race right?  :rofl:  

No wonder dems hate the military.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 30, 2008, 11:14:24 AM
it\'s getting closer...

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/30/fox-news-poll-obamas-edge-mccain-narrows/

I\'m sensing an election similar to the year 2000
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: clips on October 30, 2008, 11:24:47 AM
It\'s only natural for an election to tighten in the last few days...i want obama to win, but if he doesn\'t i won\'t go around saying it\'s the end of america as we know it,..that has been happening for a long time already....i\'ll accept whoever is the prez and deal with it.
Title: Projected Electoral Votes
Post by: Mr. Kennedy on October 30, 2008, 11:38:01 AM
Quote from: clips
It\'s only natural for an election to tighten in the last few days...i want obama to win, but if he doesn\'t i won\'t go around saying it\'s the end of america as we know it,..that has been happening for a long time already....i\'ll accept whoever is the prez and deal with it.


precisely my feelings - sans the Obama part.  I kind of feel like I already lost the election when Ron Paul dropped out (I\'m sure Hillary fans felt the same way), but it\'s always a good thing to uphold your values.