Another Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD Article

[Evi]

Here\'s an exorbitant amount of information on Blu-ray and HD-DVD usage in the years to come...for all you tech geeks

Two major groups are locked in mortal combat to gain control of the next-generation optical disc, capable of storing high-definition television (HDTV) movies: one group comprises 13 major equipment and media manufacturers supporting the Blu-ray Disc standard, while the other group backs the High-Definition Digital Videodisc (HD DVD) standard being formulated by the DVD Forum based on proposals from Toshiba Corp of Japan, NEC Corp of Japan and others. The current point of dissension is the standard for play-only media, which would be used for packaged software such as movies. The contest is, at the same time, a battle to see who will follow DVD-Video, which is now penetrating homes with astonishing speed.

In 2004 both groups intensified their promotional efforts. In January, May and September, the HD DVD group held events in Hollywood, including demonstrations, and the Blu-ray Disc group did exactly the same in March and August. Mass media was invited to similar sessions in Japan, with each group fiercely claiming the superiority of its own standard.

If things continue in this fashion it will force a split in the play-only media standard. Both groups plan to release packaged software, based on individual standards, in the second half of 2005, which would mean that stores will offer titles in two formats, each requiring its own player.

Is this really a good idea? Based on past experience and the opinions of people in the industry, the risk of having a split standard is massive. At the least it would mean a serious delay in widespread adoption of next-generation optical discs, compared to the speed of a unified standard approach. At worst, it could mean that next-generation optical discs vanish without ever being widely used.

Figure 1


Neither group will budge because each is totally confident in its own standard. The Blu-ray Disc offers large capacity, with about 25GB on a single-layer, single-sided disc, or about 50GB on a two-layer, single-sided disc. Both values are larger than those offered in HD DVD (Table 1). As Shin\'ichi Tanaka, director of the Media Control Systems Development Center, Matsushita Electric Industrial Co, Ltd of Japan pointed out, "When you consider optical discs for a decade from now, it is pretty clear that this is the time to introduce technologies for larger capacity. The Blu-ray Disc is the optimal answer."

The HD DVD, meanwhile, emphasizes lower cost and a smooth transition through the use of existing DVD technology. Because media can be manufactured for about the same cost as current DVDs, the HD DVD group claims that the market will grow much more rapidly than with Blu-ray Disc and its higher cost. "The outstanding advantage of HD DVD is that the same manufacturing systems can be used to manufacture DVDs to the current standard, too. An HD DVD line can be built while boosting DVD production capability. The totally different structure of the Blu-ray Disc not only significantly increases manufacturing complexity but also requires that a totally new line be installed," said Hisashi Yamada, Fellow Technology Officer, Digital Media Network Company, Toshiba.

It appears the groups agree that only the market can decide the truth of their claims: after market competition, the standard gaining the widest acceptance will be the one to survive.

Delaying Market Growth

These explanations by the manufacturers are not entirely convincing. Among other things, there is no assurance that a market capable of settling the issue will emerge any time soon. There is a good chance that market growth might be significantly delayed by the split standard (Fig 1).

Figure 2


Cooperation among content providers is essential in building a play-only media market. If two standards coexist, this cooperation will be harder to obtain. Hollywood film studios have already expressed discontent at the idea of having to release packaged software in two standards. As president and chief executive officer (CEO) David Bishop of MGM Home Entertainment of the US explained, "There is little business opportunity if there are two standards, and we won\'t be able to release new content easily. The only way it might be possible would be to receive financial assistance from both groups."

If there is less content available, naturally users will tend to purchase less. Even assuming that a reasonable number of titles became available in each standard, there would be little change in the fundamental situation. "Two formats equals zero," said Warren Leiberfarb, former president of Warner Home Video Inc of the US and now Chairman of Leiberfarb and Associates LLC of the US. "If there are two standards, users get confused and can\'t decide which to choose."

Unless users want products, manufacturers will also find their range of options restricted. Slower return on investment will mean delays in releasing new models, and this will in turn lead content vendors to pull back even more. In the end, the entire play-only market for next-generation discs might never take off at all.

Triggering Market Growth

If the play-only media market doesn\'t grow for the reasons given above, it will mean losing an excellent opportunity for widespread adoption. Both groups are planning to ship packaged software in the second half of 2005 because they believe that the period from 2006 to 2008 will be an ideal time for market growth. If next-generation standards end up in a vicious circle, however, it will be close to impossible for the market to take off in this timeframe. It takes years for a new standard to penetrate, and with two competing standards the time required could be several times longer yet.

There are several reasons why equipment manufacturers believe the period from 2006 to 2008 is promising (Fig 2). First of all, high-definition TV (HDTV) receivers will have achieved significantly higher market penetration than now. Terrestrial digital broadcasting will start nationwide in Japan in 2006, while in the US all TV sets of 25 inches or larger will be digital from July 2006. A number of international sports events are in that time frame, such as the soccer World Cup. Observers expect that once many home sets are able to handle HDTV programming, consumer interest in HDTV-capable optical discs will also rise.

Figure 3


The equipment manufacturers are confident that the appearance of a new standard for optical disks will be good for the content vendors, too, because almost all the film resources of Hollywood will have been released as DVDs by then. Hollywood may have to aggressively market HDTV content to maintain packaged software revenues. The final point is the equipment manufacturers themselves: it seems likely that there will be no more ways to add value to existing DVD players. The only way to accomplish that will be to switch to the next generation.

These three factors will become increasingly obvious in the Japan and US markets from about 2006. In 2008 a new factor will come into play: the Beijing Olympics. The Chinese government has announced plans to launch full-scale HDTV broadcasting at this time, and it is possible that HDTV receivers will achieve rapid adoption in the China market. If the next-generation optical disc standard is trapped in conflict, this golden opportunity could be lost.

Other standards are also hoping to achieve widespread adoption at this time as well. Three Chinese next-generation optical disc standards are competing for dominance of the Chinese HDTV market, as shown in Table 2: enhanced versatile disc (EVD), high-definition digital video (HDV) and high-definition versatile disc (HVD). Taiwan\'s Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) has also developed its own standards, the forward versatile disc (FVD) and high-definition digital videodisc (HD-DVD), and is targeting the same market. The Chinese government has been stressing home-grown standards recently, and unless the Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD groups get moving they may find a different standard already adopted.

A source at a Chinese audio-visual equipment manufacturer explained that three standards for next-generation DVD developed in China because of expectations of TV receiver manufacturers for DVD, and the price drop in DVD players. There are a number of unclear details for HDV and HVD, but both appear to be modifications to existing standards. While the current problem is a lack of content, significant growth in the China market will mean, according to an industry source familiar with Hollywood, that Hollywood could support the idea of a specific format for that market, because they seem to prefer the one-format, one-market approach.

The Rest of the Article...

[Paul2]

to sum up what EviscerationX said,

two major formats are fighting to become the next standard hd video format.

These two are Blu Ray versus HD-DVD.  Blu Ray biggest benefit is the larger storage, 27 GBytes and 50 Gbytes dual layers versus 15 Gbytes and 30 Dual layers from Toshiba.  HD-DVD (aka AOD) benefit is cheaper cost to manufacture and development, and easier to make tools hardware and software.

And last but not least, there is also another format in the fight called HVD made by the Chinese instead that have similiar storage as Blu Ray and it seem like HVD wanted a share in the format too.
Like most people, we only wanted one format and one format like the dvd player which has been a widely accepted popular across the world.

So, which format are you rooting for?

I go with Blu Ray.  I like its storage, and about the cost.  I am not worrying much about it, because with time, the cost to develop and the tool, the price will drop as with time.  Soon, it will be mass manufacture and the cost will be down to an acceptable level where we all can enjoy.  But that is just me.  Don\'t know what everyone else think.

Blu Ray biggest benefit is the larger storage, 27 GBytes and 50 Gbytes

pretty sure i saw article on hardocp about possible 4x layer and 8x layer blu-ray for 102gig and 204gig ? i am not sure though :whistle: