Just for fun, I accessed current trading markets to see the odds on some events in that area of the world:
currently trading:Iran > US/Israeli Overt Air Strike against Iran by
June 06 6.0%
Dec 06 21.5%
Mar 07 27.8%
Hamas Recognition of Israel
2006:
June 7.2%
Sept 17.0%
Dec 25.0%
Palestinian State by Dec 31, 2006:
4.7%
So you can go and bet money that it\'s going to happen and the payout would be really good, since the odds are so very low than any sort of peace/compromise will happen in the short term. As you can see, current trading puts the odds of military action there much higher than peace or even recognition of israel\'s right to exist.
*Note to those who don\'t know about predective markets as they apply to non-sporting events:
These markets work like the stock market, there is a slight margin for the traders involved, but basically they have a prediction, which changes hourly/daily/weekly, whatever. You can choose to buy the bet (ie, like a normal bet, someone is making odds with you) or sell the bet (like futures market - and if it does happen, you would have to pay another customer - or them, since they often cover sellers). The odds for selling are always slightly worse than buying, hence a small spread to protect themselves, and such, but in general predictive markets (which predict everything from weather to sports, to new popes), tend to come out fairly accurate overall, since it is, afterall run by bookmakers, mathmaticians, analysists, and experts in the field. Anywho, the finish on any bet in such areas is 100, so if the odds were 2%, and it doesn\'t happen you have to have put down 98 out of 100 and you would win 2 per 98, or loose all 98... and vice versa were you selling (put down 2 to win that 98), with a margin of course.
** Disclaimer:
I link to this site (not the actual site, a cleaned up page of the odds) to show the odds of some current world events, not as a recommendation of the service.
*edit* fixed odds, was looking at wrong column.
