Does the [Enter Console Here] have what it takes to compete this fall?

I am sure all of us want to look into the future to see how well each console turns out.  That way, you won\'t have to take the risk of buying, or staying with a console that will not succeed.  In this thread, tell your oppinion of which console/consoles will come out victorious in the end and why.  Remember, this is between the PS2, Xbox, and NGC.  The Dreamcast is not included in this.

I will first try to list the facts:  Feel free to add any facts you want.


NGC:
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Pros:
-Has franchises that are known very well throughout the world.
-Has great first party support.
-Has great texturing cababilities.
-Being released 3 days before the Xbox in America.
-Being release 6 months before the Xbox in Japan.
-Has some new and original games.

Cons:
-Has that kiddie label, which is scaring off the more adult game developers.
-No plans of going online as of right now.  They are taking the wait-and-see approach to online gaming.
-Has reletively poor third party support.

My oppinion:
When I see the NGC, I think, "Yawn, more of the same."  The graphics don\'t excite me like a new console should.  I don\'t like the cartoony graphics that are in a lot of games on it.  I don\'t mind playing a few cartoony games, but the NGC has way too many.

The NGC will probably be very successful anyways.  Nintendo\'s hold on the younger audience will pull them through once again.  Their well known franchises will also help them be successful.  I don\'t think anything can stop the NGC from being successful this fall.  They are probably just going to forget about the online thing and just have a fun party machine.  It will be like the N64 with good graphics.

The NGC being released 3 days before the Xbox will hurt the Xbox significantly.  I think at E3 they just said, "when ever the Xbox is being released, lets have our launch date 3 days earlier."  It was a very smart move by Nintendo.

I don\'t think they will be able to shake their kiddie name this generation, but I don\'t think it will hurt them enough to matter.

Xbox:
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Pros:
-Reletively easy to program for.
-Well known architecture will give great results fast.
-Arguably the most powerful console of the three.
-Huge advertising campaign.
-Comes with a harddrive and Broadband adapter.
-Most of its games are new and original.
-Has a lot of first and third party support.

Cons:
-Being released 3 days after the NGC in America.
-Being released 6 months after the NGC in Japan.
-Won\'t have any online games until Spring 2002.
-Does not support 56kers.
-Does not have any big name franchises that it is known for like the PS2 and NGC have because the Xbox is bran new.
-Microsoft is not doing too well trying to win over the Japanese audience.

My oppinion:
The Xbox is a very powerful console with a lot of support from the developers.  But is that enough?  With it being launched after the NGC, and with the PS2 having so many games come out around the launch, a lot of its potential buyers will have already bought one of the other consoles.  

The 56k only thing is also going to hurt them.  This is the one mistake that I think they should change before they launch the system.  This limits the online part of the Xbox to about half of its buyers.

They need to get support from the Japanese in order to be able to compete.


PS2:
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Pros:
-First console to have online games.
-Has lots of third party support.
-Has lots of exclusives.
-Has a lot of familiar franchises.
-Releasing a lot of it\'s best games right before the NGC and Xbox launches to try and steal some thunder.
-Has a 10 million userbase.
-Is a very powerful console (see below for the other side of the story)

Cons:
-Reletively hard to program because of its new and complicated architecture.
-Very expensive.  The PS2 with all of its addons cost way too much for the average gamer.
-Arguably the weakest console
-Has been selling very slow lately.

My oppinion:  The PS2 has a great chance of surviving this fall.  Them launching 3 or 4 awesome titles right before the launch of the other two systems will steal a little thunder, but probably not enough.  The PS2 will probably have a 15 million user base by then, which will keep them alive during the Xbox and NGC launch frenzie.  Once things slow down a little bit on the other two consoles, the PS2 sales will pick up again.

Developers will get past the "hard to develope for" problem and create some brilliant games.  The Hard Drive will fail, but the Modem and online play will be successful.


OverView:
The PS2 will hold on and maintain their lead, the NGC will come out with a bang and get close to where Sony is, and the Xbox will be the console who is playing catch up.  It will struggle at first, then start to gain some ground later on when the online play comes.

Long term predictions:
PS2 is the winner.
NGC with 4/5 the sales that the PS2 has.
Xbox with 1/3 the sales that the PS2 has.

I have a few responses that are actually very good ones  you take it how you want to:  

1.)  why do you think the 3 day Game Cube earlier release date is such a big deal??  you say that consumers will have ALREADY bought the console of their choice in a three day time inteval???  a 100 million consumer market is going to by all there consoles with in those THREE days???  90 million sold???  unlikely


This is a four year race...you talk like its going to be over in three days.  When in fact....most of the consoles bought THIS year will be bought during christmas, and And all the consoles will be out then.

And also....dont you think some people will be willing to wait THREE days for another console???  a lot of people waited a ENTIRE YEAR to get the ps2 over the dreamcast.  Do you think three days is REALLY going to be a long wait?

2.)You say:  xbox is very poweful and has a lot of developer support....but will it be enough?  why wouldnt it be?  It was enough for the psx right?

3.)I think you should include the xbox\'s extensive GOOD launch library as a key element.  It has a clear advantage over the GC when it come to variety and abundance launch titles.  They are some good GC games....but not a large quantity will out...and of the ones being released....(see the launch titles list that was JUST released)  are they enough games to hold gamers attention??  I dont think pikmin can do it.

4.)Slight correction as well...Online is said to be ready in EARLY spring 2002 (NOT SUMMER) with the release of Unreal championchip.  And you list this as a con for xbox....but no console will have online content at that time.  So it should be a con for all consoles if its a con at all.

Con-Does not have any big name franchises that it is known for like the PS2 and NGC have because the Xbox is bran new.

How is that a con? That is standard for any new system. Just because it is new does not mean it will not have good games. I mean don\'t you want brand new awesome games in a new console?

And second. How can you say that seeing how tecmo put a best selling fighter exclusively on xbox DOA3. And seeing how it games like MgsX, Panzier Dragon, Silent HillX, Dino Crisis3,JSRF, and a load of other great games like Halo, Project EGo. Yes they are new games, but they are getting lots of attention from the media, and being called the next Killer apps.

Third you list no 56k being bad for XBOX when sony is doing the same thing. Everyone knows 56k sucks for playing games and is not even worth supporting.

Fourth how can three days kill a console? I mean 3 days deciding a war. Microsoft is a household name. Everyone knows who microsoft is. They have a reputation of dominance and power. I hear ppl all the time talking about the xbox. They don\'t that much about it because they know about ING and forums and stuff like that. But they always say the Xbox is going to be great because it is from microsoft and whatever they get into and do it better.  I think when it comes to microsoft the general public expect dominance out of them.

5th XbOX needs more japanese support. From who enix and square? Everyother major game maker is making games for it.  And Enix sucks and square is making FFXI for xbox so anything could happen from their. I mean we never thought we would see any FF on Xbox.

[Living-In-Clip]

Each console has what it takes to compete this fall, but to what degree is unknown.

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Nintendo has gurantee\'d sales, because of the franchises. They know what to expect when they release the console and buyers know what to expect. Classic Nintendo franchises, and not so many third party titles. Is this a problem for Nintendo? No, not really. Nintendo has always had a tight grip on their target auidence and they will maintain it.

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Microsoft will have the hardest time this fall. The launch three days after Nintendo, could in theory hurt sales. It depends on the launch list for Xbox and who has the biggest ad campaign. Second and I don\'t know if this is everywhere or a closed case, but where I live, I cannot pre-order an Xbox. I\'ve asked everywhere and they all tell me they are not taking pre-orders. These stores include K\'B\'Toys, EB, Funco, Babbages. Yet, I can pre-order a GC? I\'m curious as to if anyone else has had this problem. Because, if it is not a closed case situation, this could hurt MS alot. I live in Kentucky, for the record.

People are saying the Xbox could be the next Psone because its always possible for a new company to come in and dominate like Sony did. True. But, one thing you also have to look at is the situation durin\' the 32 / 64 bit era. Every company had made numerous bad buisness choices, so Sony had it easy.

• Nintendo had decided to keep the cartridge format and constantly delayed the Project Reality / Ultra 64 / Nintendo 64.
• Sega had the complicated Saturn design that suprised launched with a price tag of $400. Launch titles lacked any flare and people was already upset due to the 32x / Sega cd fiasco.
• Atari\'s Jaguar had nothing market wise. It wasn\'t even really considered. Even though, it did have some good games (Tempest2000)
• 3DO was way to expensive, lacked any killer titles.

So, you can see why it was so easy for Sony to come in and dominate with the PSone. MS doesn\'t have quite as many advantages, but they do have one big one. The hardrive. Sony is releasing the hardrive has an add-on , which never works. If MS really wants to win, they should target the add-on\'s price tag, and then make it noted that they include the HD for the price of $300. The HD could easily be Sony\'s achiles heel (sp?). Proper marketing could do quite a bit of damage to Sony .

Another potenial problem MS faces is the lack of franchises. The mainstream people, may look at the system and not see anything they remember from another system and turn away.  But, if MS forces the quality over quanity mentality, then I don\'t think this will be as much a problem. And in the end, a new system with new titles means we can expect new franchises and that is always a good thing for us gamers.
Also, you can see that MS is trying to combat this problem early in the game with games such as DOA3, Silent Hill X, Dino Crisis 3, Panzer Dragoon,etc. They are tryin\' to get names people know. It is a smart move on MS\'s part.

Ease of development also gurantee\'s titles faster. So, this is a good point for MS.

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Now , for Sony.. Sony has the best chance for this year alone, due to every other system playing catch up and the "killer" games coming out for it finally. Titles like Gran Turismo 3, Twisted Metal Black, Silent Hill X and Metal Gear Solid 2 will and can sell truckloads of copies.

But on the flip side of the coin, we have the HD. Sony expects people to pay $150 for this add-on, after they already paid $300 for the system. It has never happened and I seriously doubt Sony will be the first to pull it off. If the add-on fails, it will no doubt tarnish Sony\'s reputation and fall buisness reports. But the question is, on the longterm how bad will the add-on hurt them, reputation wise?

Complicated development has plagued the PS2 like it did the Saturn, but I think we see developers getting a grip of deveoping the PS2 finally. Still, we can probably expect development time to be longer, then for the other two systems.

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You\'ll notice I didn\'t mention online gaming, this is because I don\'t see it taking off this generation. Sony nor MS are including 56k connections and alot of areas still do not have broadband connections. If online gaming does take off this generation, I think we will see MS has the one pushing it foward due to the ethernet adapter coming with the XBox. But, in general, I just do not see it taking off until next generation.

In the end, each company can compete and will compete this fall. No doubt each company will make plenty of money and we gamers will enjoy two new consoles and plenty of new games for all three systems.

NGC:
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Pros:
1) Good franchise of Titles/characters etc..
2) Kids love Nintendo, so do old time gamers like me
3) Straight forward "Gaming" console, not a toaster/or next All-in-One-Console wonder. Keeps price down.

Cons:
1) People associtate Nintendo with little kids
2) Nintendo could end up targeting only 8 year old kids.
3) Titles will all be about cute little fuzzy animal critters.

Comments:

I will buy it, cause i like some titles and old time characters. Grew up on this stuff, so i care not for the "Kiddie" label, could care less, it\'s about playing the games you enjoy, instead of image.  

Xbox:
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Pros:
1) nVidia graphics, the specs looks great.
2) Microsoft, and its deep pockets full of money.
3) Eventually the Xbox or it\'s big brother down the road called XBox 2 or 3 will get everything right, and peple will love it

Cons:
1) Microsoft - People might be pissed at them for business practices
2) Early quality of games/OS/Hardware might be not the greatest.
3) MS is not what i picture as a console players, but then again, neither was SONY.
4) Too much hype could hurt the XBox if it can\'t make games look way better then PS2 or GC games.

Comments:

Just like Internet Explorer, it came out, was sh!t, but was improved to the point of being good The same could happen here, i don\'t hold my breath the Xbox will be the most successful console of all time this time around, but given time, and Microsofts deep pockets, it is a sure bet it will probably grab a big chunck.


PS2:
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Pros:
1) Titles: GT3/MGS/FF/Tekken/VF/etc...
2) It is the "BIG" player for now...
3) Raw polygon crunching power


Cons:
1) Limited textures limit this console.
2) Hardware failures?

Comments:

IMO, I think the PS2 will remain the biggest player for at least this round of Console Wars, after this though, i\'m not sure, time will tell.

Soul_Reaver:

why do you think the 3 day Game Cube earlier release date is such a big deal??

I still think that the 3 days thing will hurt the Xbox.  Remember, it is just my oppinion.  If there were two consoles, both having games that you wanted, and one came out a little sooner, which would you choose.  I know the hardcore Xbox supporters would wait the extra 3 days, but the people who are not quite sure will probably pick up the first one released.

You say: xbox is very poweful and has a lot of developer support....but will it be enough? why wouldnt it be? It was enough for the psx right?

Consoles need more than developers, they need consumers.  If not enough people buy an Xbox, it will fail.  That is what I meant by that.

I think you should include the xbox\'s extensive GOOD launch library as a key element. It has a clear advantage over the GC when it come to variety and abundance launch titles. They are some good GC games....but not a large quantity will out...and of the ones being released....(see the launch titles list that was JUST released) are they enough games to hold gamers attention?? I dont think pikmin can do it.

Go ahead and list the Xbox launch titles.  It is all a matter of personal tastes though.  Some people hate what Nintendo has to offer, some people love it.  If I was going to get either of the consoles, I would get an Xbox for DOA3.  But right now DOA3 is not enough to persuade me to buy one.

4.)Slight correction as well...Online is said to be ready in EARLY spring 2002 (NOT SUMMER) with the release of Unreal championchip. And you list this as a con for xbox....but no console will have online content at that time. So it should be a con for all consoles if its a con at all.

Well now we have both made a mistake.  My mistake is not knowing that the Xbox will be online in the spring (I\'ll go fix that now), your mistake is not knowing that the PS2 will be online this fall.  Twisted Metal Black online and Tony Hawk 3 online are the games I\'m looking forward to that will be out this fall.

XBOX:

Con-Does not have any big name franchises that it is known for like the PS2 and NGC have because the Xbox is bran new.

How is that a con? That is standard for any new system. Just because it is new does not mean it will not have good games. I mean don\'t you want brand new awesome games in a new console?

The general gaming audience doesn\'t know anything about console specs or developer support, they only know about things from the past.  They might think, "I know what the NGC will have on its console because I know what they had on previous consoles, but I\'m not sure what the Xbox will have."  They would probably go with a sure thing instead of risking buying something they don\'t like.  Hopefully the huge Xbox campaign will make this not an issue.

And second. How can you say that seeing how tecmo put a best selling fighter exclusively on xbox DOA3. And seeing how it games like MgsX, Panzier Dragon, Silent HillX, Dino Crisis3,JSRF, and a load of other great games like Halo, Project EGo. Yes they are new games, but they are getting lots of attention from the media, and being called the next Killer apps.

Those are not all launch titles.  I never said that the Xbox wouldn\'t have any good games.  I said the launch games would not be good enough for me to get an Xbox then.

Third you list no 56k being bad for XBOX when sony is doing the same thing. Everyone knows 56k sucks for playing games and is not even worth supporting.

Sony is not doing the same thing.  They support both 56k and broadband.

5th XbOX needs more japanese support. From who enix and square? Everyother major game maker is making games for it. And Enix sucks and square is making FFXI for xbox so anything could happen from their. I mean we never thought we would see any FF on Xbox.

Sorry I didn\'t make that more clear.  I said that they have support from the developers.  They don\'t have support from the gaming audience in Japan.  Right now, the Japanese can\'t take the Xbox seriously.  Every time Bill Gates tries to convince the Japanese to buy an Xbox, they hate it even more.

I always love to see a civilized conversation, I already have a PS2 and depending on how much money I have and what looks good at launch I may get another console, but for now Im happy with my PS2

I\'d just like to remind people that Nintendo itself will produce mostly kiddie games. but not the 3rd parties. Many developers have taken an interest in the GC (ie. Square, Enix, Namco, etc.). For the casual gamer, the GC is not a kiddie console because most only need one good game every month and that should definitely not be a problem for the GC. I don\'t know how many people are gonna listen, but I tried.

I just want to point out that there is a 56k add-on for the Xbox in the making.

Originally posted by Nu Gundam
I just want to point out that there is a 56k add-on for the Xbox in the making.

Really?  If that is true, that is very good for the Xbox.  I\'ll go look for info on this.  Go ahead an give us a link Nu Gundam and save me some time.

EDIT: Uh oh, someone didn\'t do their research.  The 56k modem add-on plan has been scrapped.
http://www.msxbox.com/php/full_post.php3?id=515

Early on, Microsoft thought about releasing a 56k modem add-on for the Xbox so those without broadband could play online games. But, somehow, we all pretty much knew that an add-on of that caliber would simply be a step backwards for the console. If the games are meant to be fast-paced, even through the internet, then playing on a 56k modem would defeat the purpose and cause headaches for developers.

According to EGM Mag, we\'ve learned that it has been quite some time now that Microsoft dropped the idea of releasing a 56K modem add-on for the Xbox. For those of you who are discouraged 56k users, know that you\'ll still be able to network Xboxes together to get a multiplayer experience that rivals broadband play. Of course, with the high-speed ports on the Xbox (for the controllers), Microsoft could come easily out with a 56k modem add-on at any time. For it to really be successful, however, game developers have to plan early to make their games work well with the lower bandwidth, or the unit would be useless.

Update: Microsoft could also change their strategy overseas specifically because broadband is not as prevelant as it is in the states (and doesn\'t seem to be growing anywhere near it is in the USA). However, such a move would not be an easy one, even though it would appeal to a large audience. Microsoft has repeatedly said that they feel broadband gaming is the future, and a slow, lagging experience with analog modems would only defeat that purpose. Here are some broadband stats taken from CATV Cyberlab to give you an idea of the potential growth:

-Approximately 10 percent of U.S. household are currently using some form of broadband Internet access service, with DSL and cable being the two most common forms.

-Worldwide, Cable modem use will grow from 5.7 million installed systems in 2000 to 27.6 million systems in 2005.

-Worldwide, Between 2000 and 2005, the installed base of DSL lines to increase from 2.4 million to 13.8 million.

Microsoft wants fast online play, and they are willing to sacrifice 9/10 potential Xbox onliners by not supporting 56k.  I think this is going to hurt Microsoft more than they could imagine.  Like Living-In-Clip said, I don\'t think this generation is the online generation.  The world is not ready for it.

yes, they allhave what it takes, next question...

Originally posted by IronFist
:
The general gaming audience doesn\'t know anything about console specs or developer support, they only know about things from the past.  They might think, "I know what the NGC will have on its console because I know what they had on previous consoles, but I\'m not sure what the Xbox will have."  They would probably go with a sure thing instead of risking buying something they don\'t like.  Hopefully the huge Xbox campaign will make this not an issue.

You do not know how the gaming audience feels about new hardware. If that was the case playstation would have never made it. I had never seen an add for psx. The only time I seen it was in a game store. And I thought the game I saw for it looked great. That is what everyone who was in the store said. I mean everyone kept saying what is the name of that game but we did not know. So you can\'t make a statement like that.  I hear ppl screaming about the XboX all the time and they don\'t even know any games on it. I ask them to name one game and they can\'t, but they tell me it is going to be a great system. I mean that is crazy. I mean if that is what the general public thought about all new hardware gaming would suck. I would have to say that is only your opinion and not actually how the public see\'s gaming.

Those are not all launch titles.  I never said that the Xbox wouldn\'t have any good games.  I said the launch games would not be good enough for me to get an Xbox then.[/B]

Ok can you see the future? How can you say that about xbox games. You don\'t know how good there are going to be. I mean PS2 launch games sucked, but that did not stop ppl from picking it over a dreamcast that had a library of great games. I mean unless you have actually played finished XBOX games how can you say the games at launch won\'t be good?

I still think that the 3 days thing will hurt the Xbox. Remember, it is just my oppinion. If there were two consoles, both having games that you wanted, and one came out a little sooner, which would you choose. I know the hardcore Xbox supporters would wait the extra 3 days, but the people who are not quite sure will probably pick up the first one released.

[/b]

First all you can\'t put a number on the amount of ppl excited about XboX or gamecube. I mean there are millions and millions of gamers. And you just don\'t know. So that is pure speculation. I mean you don\'t know exactly what ppl do. I mean you can\'t predict. I mean you just don\'t know and you can\'t say. I mean 3days is not the end of the world. And you don\'t know how ppl make their decision. It\'s just speculation. And you can\'t go on speculation as being a fact on how ppl will choose there console.

Originally posted by XBOX
You do not know how the gaming audience feels about new hardware. If that was the case playstation would have never made it. I had never seen an add for psx. The only time I seen it was in a game store.

The PSX was in a different situation than the Xbox is.  The only console it was competing against was the Saturn, and a lot of people were so mad at Sega for giving so much crap before that (Sega CD, 32X), it was a given that they were going to get a PSX instead.

And I don\'t think the PSX really took off until people saw how much it was dominating the other consoles.  When the Saturn failed, and the N64 hype died down, the PSX was the only console to go to.

This time, the Xbox is going against two consoles with arguably great reputations.  It is going to be way different then last generation.

Ok can you see the future? How can you say that about xbox games. You don\'t know how good there are going to be. I mean PS2 launch games sucked, but that did not stop ppl from picking it over a dreamcast that had a library of great games. I mean unless you have actually played finished XBOX games how can you say the games at launch won\'t be good?

I didn\'t say the Xbox launch games wouldn\'t be good, I said they "would not be good enough for me."  One man\'s junkyard is another man\'s goldmine (or however that saying goes. )  If you think they are good, then go ahead and buy an Xbox.  I respect your decision.  I am not going to be getting one on launch day, though, because I don\'t think its worth it yet.

First all you can\'t put a number on the amount of ppl excited about XboX or gamecube. I mean there are millions and millions of gamers. And you just don\'t know. So that is pure speculation. I mean you don\'t know exactly what ppl do. I mean you can\'t predict. I mean you just don\'t know and you can\'t say. I mean 3days is not the end of the world. And you don\'t know how ppl make their decision. It\'s just speculation. And you can\'t go on speculation as being a fact on how ppl will choose there console.

That was the most rambling and repetitiveness I have ever seen in a post.  Ok, ok, I know what you mean!  But I did say that all that was my oppinion, and I can speculate all I want as long as I am stating it as oppinion and not as fact.  That\'s what this whole thread is for.  Tell us how you think the consoles will do this fall.

Originally posted by IronFist

One man\'s junkyard is another man\'s goldmine (or however that saying goes. )

Usually it\'s "one man\'s junk is another man\'s treasure."

But I like your adaptation!

About the 3 days... That won\'t hurt the XBox that bad. What matters is the Demo units they put out in the stores ahead of the launch. Those will determine what console people get. There are still many more games we don\'t know about for the NGC as of yet. But soon we will know. Hopefully FFXI comes to gamecube. It all depends on which console people get this Christmas, that is the critical point. Microsoft is bribing developers now. If they make an XBox game MS will pay for all the development costs. No strings attached. The Price on the GC will be the deciding factor for its success this fall. Some of the buyers will be like this:

"Awesome... Look at this console Frank, its called thie XBox. Look at the graphics on this thing. I bet it costs a pretty penny. Yep, $300 at launch, but it includes a DVD player. Its made by Microsoft. It will probably be like a PC with PC games but it looks good. Hmmm.. No titles I have ever heard of. Its a little risky though, considering it doesn\'t have a DVD player in it. What in the world is this? The Nintendo GameCube? Awe..... Look at those graphics.... they are the same as the Xbox, OR BETTER! And I know these games. Wave Race, Eternal Darkness I\'ve never heard of but all these games are probably fun. Whats this? Its only $200? I can get 2 games at launch for the price of the XBox. No DVD player though. But it still looks like a garenteed success over the Xbox"

(Note: If I acted like it was graphics that they looked at first, thats mainly what they do look at)

Thats what the uninformed, little knowing Gamer will think. With the cheaper price GC will rule the holiday year. PS2 will be on the defense trying to get some sales, and the XBox will be fighting for a position. After the holiday season though. Who knows what will happen. The PS2 will still be in first, with NGC catching on it, and the XBox could just plain flop after the first year. This is as far as I can go with my predictions. You can\'t predict the end. That $200 price will sell lots of consoles.