1.
You make some valid points Lavan, but you may have overlooked a few things. There is also a flip side to that logic, namely that said 16-24 yr. old (and sometimes even older) gamer being weaned on Nintendo, may no longer see Nintendo as appealing to their current tastes when it comes to games. Some gamers however right or wrong, may feel that they have outgrown Nintendo\'s games. As unlikely as it seems, some ppl have expressed this very same pov. Also, the mindset of the casual and newbie gamer does not hold the same respect for games such as MGS 2, FF, Zelda, and Metroid that die-hard Sony and Nintendo fans do. They\'re ignorant or at least indifferent to the popularity of established franchises and probably pick games on a one to one basis as a particular game appeals to them, so game notoriety may not be a factor in their decisions.
2.
IMO even after E3, interest in Xbox has not stagnated at all but continues to grow. It\'s true that just b/c a company spends millions on advertising does not garauntee success, but it sure does help. Who said Xbox mostly appeals to just PC gamers? There will be hardcore gamers that buy Xbox as well as newbie and casual gamers.
3.
I understand your point that ports may not be enough to sway gamers that have allready made their console choice and don\'t plan on buying any other console, but some gamers will be buying multiple consoles this generation, myself included. This may influence port specific games purchases for each particular console depending how a game looks and what features it has in regards to each specific console. It has become obvious, that Xbox will have it\'s fair share of games that it recieves first and then ported over to other systems as well. In the case of the MATRIX, Xbox will have the definitive version of the game. We can\'t forget the Sega games that will be showing up on Xbox that are for the moment exclusive, that may make some ppl want to purchase an Xbox also. Panzer Dragoon is a good example of this. Most importantly, there will be 80 exclusives that Xbox will get, 40 3rd party and 40 1st and 2nd party games. I don\'t know how many exclusives PS2 and Gamecube will have, but that\'s not too shabby a number for MS to have in it\'s arsenal. Out of those 80, I\'m sure some gamers will find a few games that will be featured nowhere else but Xbox that may just warrant a purchase of the console. As far as why would some ppl wait to buy an Xbox instead of a PS2, some ppl didn\'t buy a Dreamcast b/c they were waiting to buy a PS2. Go figure.
4.
As far as those examples of games are concerned (THPS2, THPS2X and THPS3), whose to say if any one of those games will tip the odds in favor of a particular console purchase either way? As it\'s been stated numerous times before on these boards, the thing that could make or break a console this generation, is not the amount of ports that each console will have b/c all the systems will have ports, but it will probably come down to the amount of good exclusives each console has that could make a difference.
