The reason they think he\'s not dead is because of the radio communication.
They\'ve been monitoring it and they (al-Q) still seems disciplined. If he infact was dead they should be hearing people panicking over the radio (lots of radio communication. Right now its low) because their "leader" or whatever is dead.
I dont know about their theories, but I dont think we will get rid of him that easily. He will probably hide for several years and plan a new attack.. Lets hope they get to him before his plan can be put into reality.
Btw, did they ever get that dude (forgot his name, but he was one of the leaders) who took off on a motorcycle just before the American raid?