....PS3 in 2007???XBOX2 in 2005??

Originally posted by Bobs_Hardware
That logic is flawed. If money was what the developers were really concerned about when they went to develop for the next MS or N consoles, then they\'d still be developing for the PS2, which will still be selling better than said newer consoles.\\

hmm yeah you are right about that.But we still dont know how powerful PS2\'s presence will be when XBOX2 and the next Nintendo will be released.I dont think it will be as massive as you described in the future.Remember how well DC was doing when it was released despite the, PS\'s success and the fact that Sega lost some of its reputation with the saturn?
I mean nothing\'s certain.

But most importantly I dont think developers will continue developing sequels of their most popular franchises, the money magnets on out dated technology otherwise they will weaken them.

However, when the next Playstation is released, if it happens to be quite some time after the next MS or N consoles, then it simply must have launch titles to sell the machine. Going up against a couple of companies who already have extremely solid (and well established) first party lineups, they are almost guaranteed to have good quality, and popular games on the system. The PS3\'s hype will help to stave off a lot of sails for the competition, but if it\'s launch games aren\'t up to scratch with what the competition has to offer, then there would most likely be a little bit of trouble. Not necessarily enough to lose their \'lead\', but trouble non-the less. Although, backwards compatability could help a little.

I\'d like to see the next SOCOM and Gran Turismo be the major launch games. And who knows, maybe even Killzone 2. [/B]

Yeah but so the next MS and the next N.They will have their launch titles as well as other titles released later which might probably include franchises that made PS2 so attractive in the first place.2 years is a long time.I agree that GT and other games from first party developers are console sellers but so were many games from third pary developers like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Tekken etc.The absence(if there will be one) of these exclusive games are sure to reduce appealing and sales.These include the franchises from third party developers that made people wait for PS2\'s release instead of purchasing a DC.Hmm....if we think the possibility that these games arent released for XBOX2 or the next N what you said about the competitors ending up like the DC will most likely happen.
Oh well.I agree with your arguements ofcourse I just think of the other possibilities as well.

Heh.If Sony manages to keep the leading position for 3 generations in a row we are talking about a record.

excellent article that furhter illustrates my point of who dictates when next generation starts:

In other words, studios are being asked to invest in next-generation R&D two years before it\'s required for PS3, and to spend more money developing an Xbox 2 version of a cross platform title - for an audience of a few million people - than they\'ll spend developing all three current-generation versions of the game - for an audience of well over a hundred million. Faced with this prospect, huge companies like EA may be able to throw money at the problem, and some small independent developers may be able to make a go of it by switching entirely to Xbox 2 development; but the simple fact is that nobody is going to stop supporting PS2 for Xbox 2, and the cost of supporting both may be prohibitive for a great many publishers and developers.

Full article here:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?section_name=pub&aid=3635

Brings up very good points.Also what you and bob mentioned earlier.Very intreresting read.

The belief within Microsoft\'s top Xbox executives, according to company insiders, is that the main reason that Xbox has failed to seriously challenge the PlayStation 2 is because Sony had first mover advantage - a gap of a year in which to build up its installed base and convince consumers and industry alike that it was the key platform of the next generation. Hence the urgency around launching Xbox 2 well ahead of its competitors; if, as seems increasingly likely, PlayStation 3 doesn\'t arrive until late 2006 or even early 2007, Microsoft believes that it will have won a huge competitive advantage by being to market as much as two years earlier. This, the conventional wisdom says, is how Microsoft will crush Sony.

If MS is only looking at it as a time advantage then they will fail.  I think it will be hard to entice gamers to move on, seeing as how Xbox, GC, and PS2 all have some excellent looking titles coming in 2005.  MS would need some red hot exclusives, lots of third party support, and a price that can\'t be passed up.  

Even then Sony could start hyping the PS3 to be 5x more powerful(just an example) and that alone would have people wait while they play their PS2.  

Microsoft isn\'t used to making decisions as an industry small-fry, and it\'s trying to act like an industry leader in an industry it simply doesn\'t lead.

This is so true.  This is signature material for TeamXbox;)

Well seems they will fail unless MS finds a way to keep developing costing low on XBOX2.

Yes, hopefully XNA will help them out in this regard and encourage developers.

Originally posted by Rikku
If MS is only looking at it as a time advantage then they will fail.  I think it will be hard to entice gamers to move on, seeing as how Xbox, GC, and PS2 all have some excellent looking titles coming in 2005.  MS would need some red hot exclusives, lots of third party support, and a price that can\'t be passed up.  

Even then Sony could start hyping the PS3 to be 5x more powerful(just an example) and that alone would have people wait while they play their PS2.  



This is so true.  This is signature material for TeamXbox;)

Not true ppl are graphic whores. One of the reason ps2 started out so successful ppl thinking ps2 graphics where going to be so much better than dc.

It could not have been the games because at the time Dc had much better games than ps2.

If ms shows xbox 2 with next gen graphics up against ps2 with outdated graphics they will have a chance. They will have a chance regardless. There biggest thing is too get the console up and in stores before sony has a chance. I bet the farm that a 2007 launch of ps3 would hurt the system.

2 years is a long time to give the competition.

QuDDus:

Not quite sure. The reason why PS2 was successful was because of mindshare, in other words anticipation from consumers that bought a PlayStation and were looking forward to the next console by Sony together with all the expected sequels to the franchises that made the PlayStation a big success. Dreamcast on the other hand lacked the proper marketing, the support and had negativ mindshare evolving back from the days of the Saturn.

The graphics delivered at PS2\'s launch were marginally better than Dreamcast\'s at the time - mainly Tekken Tag Tournament being the only one that looked better than most things that Dreamcast could offer. Other titles lacked the clean image quality to set themselves apart or on the same level as Dreamcast visuals. PS2 was successful because of proper marketing, incredible mindshare and the support of just about every developer.

The big mistake Microsoft is making, is not making their console backwards compatible. By not doing so, they\'re loosing their market and users of the current generation and have to start blank. Backwards-compatability would make the whole transision smoother, thus making it easier for Microsoft to start with a range of well-known games already, give Xbox consumers the chance to just "upgrade" their console and know that their recently purchased software isn\'t lost value with the new one. That would give developers the necessary confidence to make the jump.

Also another thing, which I think you missed out:
the last two years of a generation are always the most profitable for a developer. How would Xbox get its software when all devs are still happy to develop on the old generation and make the "big money"?

Are you also aware that PlayStation still outsold next generation consoles shortly after they had launched until almost a year later?

Btw since DC was mentioned.DC was doing very well before PS2.And it was released in 1998.It had many many titles on it.Want development high costing too back then?

Originally posted by seven
QuDDus:

Not quite sure. The reason why PS2 was successful was because of mindshare, in other words anticipation from consumers that bought a PlayStation and were looking forward to the next console by Sony together with all the expected sequels to the franchises that made the PlayStation a big success. Dreamcast on the other hand lacked the proper marketing, the support and had negativ mindshare evolving back from the days of the Saturn.

The graphics delivered at PS2\'s launch were marginally better than Dreamcast\'s at the time - mainly Tekken Tag Tournament being the only one that looked better than most things that Dreamcast could offer. Other titles lacked the clean image quality to set themselves apart or on the same level as Dreamcast visuals. PS2 was successful because of proper marketing, incredible mindshare and the support of just about every developer.

The big mistake Microsoft is making, is not making their console backwards compatible. By not doing so, they\'re loosing their market and users of the current generation and have to start blank. Backwards-compatability would make the whole transision smoother, thus making it easier for Microsoft to start with a range of well-known games already, give Xbox consumers the chance to just "upgrade" their console and know that their recently purchased software isn\'t lost value with the new one. That would give developers the necessary confidence to make the jump.

Also another thing, which I think you missed out:
the last two years of a generation are always the most profitable for a developer. How would Xbox get its software when all devs are still happy to develop on the old generation and make the "big money"?

Are you also aware that PlayStation still outsold next generation consoles shortly after they had launched until almost a year later?

Well if you read my post I said one of the reasons. There are a number of factors as to why ps2 was such a huge console. Second thing being backwards compatible is something that has just taken effect. Many consoles have all survived without having it and it is not something that will make or break your system. It is just a bonus for ppl who throw away there old console.

If your going to keep all those old games then don\'t throw away your system.

Another thing you missed out is XNA which I guess you haven\'t been reading up on. XNA will allow developers to make games on xbox2 cheaper,faster, and better.

[GmanJoe]

Yeah, PS2 inherited PSX\'s vast library of top hit games. Even when PS2 was a little bare in teh first year, you could still get games you missed from PSX and play it. I did that with FF9.

Originally posted by QuDDus
Well if you read my post I said one of the reasons. There are a number of factors as to why ps2 was such a huge console. Second thing being backwards compatible is something that has just taken effect. Many consoles have all survived without having it and it is not something that will make or break your system. It is just a bonus for ppl who throw away there old console.

If your going to keep all those old next games then don\'t throw away your system.

Another thing you missed out is XNA which I guess you haven\'t been reading up on. XNA will allow developers to make games on xbox2 cheaper,faster, and better.

The XNA was mentioned in the article but it seems that theere are chances that the low development cost wouldnt be a sure thing

Originally posted by Unicron!
The XNA was mentioned in the article but it seems that theere are chances that the low development cost wouldnt be a sure thing

I don\'t see how it couldn\'t be.

[MPTheory]

Same here.  and to be quite honest with you guys, for me, I could care less if I cant play the PS3 until 2007, as long as they keep releasing good games...  Until I see a bunch or incredibly awesome games for the Xbox, I\'ll continue to stick with sony exclusivley.  And even if I did buy an Xbox, I\'d STILL buy a ps3, which I\'m sure is the case for a lot of people

Originally posted by QuDDus
I don\'t see how it couldn\'t be.

There seems to be something else we ommited that the author didnt.I dont know.The XNA was mentioned in the article as a solution decided by MS to counter the problem but the author insisted on high cost of production becuase it will be too soon.I dont know.
Actually I dont see how it couldnt be either.