I kind of agree, the difference between the PSOne and PS2 when its first launch were 5 years, 3 months. With the PSOne still doing okay for a couple more years. That makes it about 7 good years of lifespan it have...
The timeline difference between the launch of PS2 and PS3 is longer. PS3 officially announced a launch date in Nov of this year. Then that would make it 6 years 8 months difference between the launch date of ps2 and ps3.
That\'s about 17 months longer than the launch between psOne and PS2 and the ps2 is still doing all right. I could image ps2 still doing okay after the launch of ps3 till 2008, where it may reach it peak. and that would make it 8 years of lifespan it have.
PS3, I am not really sure about its lifespan. Back in 2002, I was guessing that the PS3 won\'t come out until 2006 instead of 2005 to include a Blu Ray drive because I believe Blu Ray Players won\'t come out until 2006. Also, by delaying the launch date to 2006, the PS3 can get an extra year of more powerful graphical performance.
Why was I guessing that the ps3 is likely to include a Blu Ray built in is because I look at the patterns between PSOne and PS2.
PSOne use CD-ROM drive and support CD-Audio discs too.
PS2 support CD-ROM and Audio too, but its also include DVD-ROM built in, and can play DVD-Video too.
By looking at that pattern I suspect the future ps3 will include a Blu Ray drive built in and can play back Blu Ray Video too. And knowing quite sure that Blu ray playes won\'t comes out until 2006, I have a feeling the PS3 will not launch in 2005...
A very welcome suprise about ps3 that I wasn\'t sure and doubt that the ps3 will include was a Hard Disk Drive. But I was pleasantly surprised when sony announced that the ps3 will include a detachable 60 Gbytes HDD.
Why I didn\'t think the ps3 will include a HDD is because PS2 didn\'t include it and have to be bought seperatedly. Also, because PS3 with blu Ray and HDD might increase the cost of the console. I guess Sony realized that add-on bought seperatedly usually don\'t do well. So, this time around, Sony is more serious about Internet and online gaming and download, that they have to include the HDD for the ps3. Which is a good thing. But now, that makes me curious is just how much will the ps3 going to cost?
I used to think ps3 might cost $500, but now that it will include a 60 Gbytes HDD. I wouldn\'t be surprise if it be sell at $600. But anything higher, Sony is really in trouble.
Sorry for this long post, but anway. If Blu Ray is going to come out in 2006, then next generation optical disc after blu ray might come out in 2015. So, you can expect PS4 to come out in 2015 as the earliest, or maybe a year later to include that newer next generation optical disc, which is holographic versatile disc, again assuming if sony is willing to include HVD for ps4. So, that would make the launch date between ps3 and ps4 about 10 years difference...
unless next generation optical disc after blu ray comes out earlier than 2015...say 2013, then...