You can\'t say that of the millions of Evercrack users none of them care about consoles. If consoles bring it, they will come.
And you\'re wrong about EQ and its players. It is known for its newbie friendly atmosphere and learning curve. It\'s the online game for the newbie.
The DC online community was pretty big considering its userbase. MS is going to market this so that people believe that they have to have it. No one thought EQ was going to work, but they were wrong.
If the game is great people will pay. If it\'s a flat fee to play every game in your library (including all MMGs) it\'ll be cheaper to play on the xbox than each one seperately on your computer. If there is no lag, and there really won\'t be since the DC was so good on a 56k, people will come.
How many will come to GTA4 when it goes online? FF? Halo?
Everything starts with the hardcore players, and then it becomes mainstream. If the online thing takes off and people love it, word will spread and people will "give it a try". Once they see how much better games are online, who\'s to say they\'ll just as easily return to single player?
Gaming is becoming more acceptable as a form of entertainment, people pay thousands of dollars on entertainment a year.
$15 bucks a month is $180 bucks a year. That\'s nothing. I make that in a few hours. It\'s not much money, and if you think about it, online gaming extends the life of games you have, making you need fewer games a year. You could argue you break even.
Money is the least of MS\'s worries. The big hurdle is getting people to get over the notion that playing games online isn\'t for geeks or nerds. If they can do that, this console war becomes a lot more interesting than it already is.
EDIT:
Also, most people already buy games and have broadband. Those expenses are a given and they would spend that money regardless. It\'s really only the monthly that is extra really.