http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5049770"The accord between the Kurds and Shias gives the former extreme autonomy, while pleasing the latter by giving the constitution not only an Islamist tint but also letting Shias (and Sunnis) form their own decentralised regions. But Sunnis believe that this would further divide the country, to their detriment. In particular, Sunnis worry that the Shias could form a “super-region” of up to nine provinces, with links to neighbouring Iran, presaging Iraq’s eventual break-up into three countries. Furthermore, the article in the draft constitution dealing with the allocation of oil revenue has worrying ambiguities that could be abused by the Shias and Kurds, who sit on most of the country’s oil fields."
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Assuming the constitution, for all its flaws, has been approved by voters, it will pave the way to a new form of governance that will be the most federal and decentralised in the Middle East, establish a fair set of rights and values, and, with luck, improve life for all Iraqis. If all indications so far are wrong and it is rejected, the December parliamentary elections will have to be followed by a fresh round of constitution-drafting. Even in this pessimistic case, the increased Sunni representation in the new parliament should improve the chances that the second stab at a constitution would be more widely acceptable.
More reassurances needed
There is plenty that the current and next parliaments can still do to reassure Sunnis and undercut support for the insurgency. Guarantees could be offered to former members of Saddam’s Baath party who have no blood on their hands that they have nothing to fear. A ruling could be made that no region may comprise more than four provinces, in order to block the formation of super-regions. The constitutional articles regarding oil revenues could be clarified and amended to ensure that Sunni-inhabited areas which lack oil reserves are not done down.
Now that the referendum has been held, and apparently ended in success for the constitution\'s drafters, it is vital for Iraq’s emerging new order to divide the insurgents and reach out to Sunni nationalists. If things go well, the political momentum that has fizzled since January’s elections may be recovered. But Iraqis still need to try harder to clasp hands across sectarian barriers."
Would a division of Iraq into three separate nations based on ethnicity be beneficial? I would imagine it would tone down possible the sectarian violence that may arise if they were all forced to live in the same boundaries. However, it would dramatically weaken the power of Iraq and may be counter-productive in that the three countries could go to war over the oil that was once supposed to be common property.
Anyway, if the constitution succeeds in bringing democratic progress to Iraq, as the current conditions very cautiously indicate, then my hats off to Bush... you\'ve done the right thing, Mr. President.
