Even if the profit overlapses that of the two previous years?
It may seem illogical but sometimes yes. This depends on the overal significance of the factors that made the product profitable all of the sudden. But as it seems 2005 overlapped 2004\'s profits. I think that this may mean that these factors werent significant.Thats probably why MS expected losses for 2004 as well.
They should have known that because expecting profits in a new products first year is overreaching. Especially if they plan to sell at a loss, which many high profile products do.
Its true I 100% agree. The first year may not be a good indication.
But if it makes more losses than it is expected for a healthy product then this will show in the products later course.
Both good and bad products(not necessarilly saying that XBOX is a bad product) of the same kind (like consoles) will make losses when they launch. But most likely the bad will have more losses compared to the better products. To get a good idea of how well the product will do, you have to take all competiting products and see relative performance in the market.
edit: as it seems probably XBOX didnt perform well since the fifth year did worse than the fourth. Both far from launch