Hard to say, a good mix of the line I was in were poor college kids, ebay dealers, and parents. If you took out group #1 due to the higher cost of the system, that still leaves many folks looking for an even smaller amount of units on launch (500k PS2s, vs. 400k PS3s).
Expect the top 10 people in line to be grey-haired ebay dealers with their friends/family.
I would bet you have a good chance of scoring one if you wait at 3am in a non-major metropolitan area.