It isn\'t too late to join, is it?
nikos,
But lets face it, the early Ps2 games weren\'t what we can say " a breakthrough" and only now they start making really impressive games. I think we both agree on that.
And somehow the PS2 still managed to sell about 20 million consoles before the other next gen systems came out, and this is even when the PS2 was $300 and the Dreamcast was $200. This shows what is needed to be successful. 1. A great reputation and a well known name (Playstation). 2. A perfect launch time (a whole year before the competition? And it\'s competing directly against a company who has had a shaky reputation in the past [sega]. It can\'t get any better than that.) 3. HYPE.
When the Xbox launches in Europe, they will only have one of the three -- hype. Without a doubt Microsoft will hype up their system and the tons of games that are coming on launch day. But will this be enough? Will the casual gamer really spend 300 on a system when they can get a system with a lot more games for 100 less, or a different system for even less than that (the NGC)? Not very likely.
They are launching at one of the worst possible times, when the PS2 has already been out and selling for a year, and the NGC has been out for a few months. A lot of the casual gamers will have already bought their console for this generation, so they wouldn\'t even be interested in the Xbox (most casual gamers only buy one console per generation.)
And Microsoft is not a very well known or respected name in the console industry yet. Like I said before, they will probably advertise like crazy, but I don\'t know if that will earn them the trust that they need to make people buy their system.
Nintendo and Sega used to be the kings of consoles, and OUT OF THE BLUE, one fine day SONY (who??? SONY, who was only making electronics at that time, a NO ONE in gaming industry) came up with the PSX.
The rest of the story, you know. I\'m not saying Xbox is the next "SONY" who will crush the "ex-Nintendo" (sony), but I\'m trying to show you that REACHING THE TOP IS EASY. The hard part is remaining there.
Reaching the top is far from easy. That was probably about 95% luck on Sony\'s part breaking into the industry. If Sega hadn\'t made their console so hard to program, and Nintendo hadn\'t made their console so developer-unfriendly, Sony wouldn\'t have had a chance IMO. And for the reasons I gave above, it is going to be anything but easy for Microsoft.
What I want to say is that if Sony reduces the price of the PS2, after a while M$ will do the same. And by that time, more and more games developers will make games for the XBox.
Unlike when the PS2 was released and there wasn\'t any competition, the Xbox is going to be fighting against two other consoles that cost less. During that time when Microsoft\'s console is expensive, the PS2 and NGC will be selling like hot cakes only increasing the developers\' interest in the PS2 and NGC (but mainly PS2 because the userbase will be so much bigger than both the NGC and Xbox).
And about price, Sony had already lowed the price of the PS2 in other countries (and even in your country, the UK). Now, MS following suit, what else do you expect? You don\'t have to be an economist to see that any company will not just sit still as their competition reduces their price (and of coarse, rake in the sales due to that price drop). When Sony lowered the price of the PSX, Nintendo followed suit with the N64 and lowered its price. Sega did that as well (though Sega had other problems, with extremely rushed launch, and bad developer support that made the price drop mute and sadly ended its reign). Price competition at its finest.
It won\'t be that easy for Microsoft. Right now, Sony is making a profit on all PS2s sold. But every console that Microsoft sells, they lose about $80 dollars (US dollars). If they are already losing that much money per system, I think they will be a bit skeptical about lowering the price even more. I know Microsoft does not intend to make too much money this generation (they are really just going after the trust of the consumers so the Xbox2 will be successful), but I\'m sure they still want to make something. Will Microsoft drop the price? Of course. But will they drop it down to the PS2\'s or NGC\'s price in order to be a "real" contender? Not very likely.
So don\'t just count on that, because we all saw how game developers gave up on the SNES, Megadrive and Dreamcast when they saw that the ship was sinking.
I\'m not sure exactly what you meant by this. Do you mean that you think the PS2 is going to be that sinking ship, and people will abandon it and go over to the Xbox? With a 20+ million userbase (probably around 30 million by the time the Xbox is released world wide), the devs won\'t be abandoning ship. Period.
This [piracy] might do a big damage on the sales of the games, but you can not imagine how good it does on the sales of the consoles.
But because Microsoft loses money for every system they sell, this only hurts Microsoft even more.
And since the Xbox will have a reduced price AND probably been cracked to allow backups, together with the fact that microsoft is a really BIG player, I believe that from december 1 until the new year, the Xbox will have sold more consoles than the PS2. (I don\'t mean overall in the years of course, I only mean in that period of one-one and a half month)
I will agree with you on this one. The Microsoft/Xbox fans alone will make the Xbox sell better during time when the Xbox is released. The PS2 will have already been 2 years old by then (and out in Europe for 1 1/2 years), and the sales will start to slow down a little bit (unless there is some big game released around the same time that the Europeans have to have, i.e.
The Getaway). But I don\'t think the Xbox will have staying power. It\'s sales will be good for a few months, but the Sony and Nintendo will take over again.
My post is completely speculation. It is just what I predict to happen when the Xbox is released in Europe. Hey, I was right about the NGC/Xbox US launch (that the Xbox and NGC would sell out leaving the PS2 to pick up the millions of extra sales), so now I\'m going for two out of two.
I also think that the Xbox launch in Japan will be more successful than the NGC\'s, but like in Europe, it will slow way down again and the PS2 and NGC will pass it up within a month.
And this is kind of off topic, but I think I just figured out the release of The Getaway.
What better time to release a game that has 50 miles of real European streets and landmarks (is it London that the Getaway is designed from? I can\'t remember), then right before the launch of a new console in Europe? If they really release the game right before the Xbox launch, and it turns out to actually be a great game, the Xbox is screwed IMO. Remember, you heard this exclusive news here first.