I too doubt that xbox will ever catch PS2--this year or four years from now.
But in 2-3 years how many of the 50 million PS2 owners will still be actively buying software and playing their system? Many of those early adopters will have purchased an xbox or GC, and assuming 3rd party practices stay the same, with the choice of the same game on PS2 or a competing console, which console will they buy the game for?
Everything is going to shake down and each console will have their absolute exclusives, 6 months exclusives and 3rd party whoreware.
I know if I had a choice between a PS2 game and an xbox version, I\'d chose the xbox version everytime. It\'s just better (with very few exceptions). Right now the PS2 has mindshare and many of the new games first, but the latter isn\'t going to last forever, we all know that. What would happen then?
There are already rumblings that GTA4 will be released similtaneously on all platforms (or even that MS will buy the rights for it). So someone looking for a new console, that are priced the same, is going to buy which system? If the only difference is performance, why not go for the best looking/playing game?
So I don\'t think xbox will ever have a larger userbase, but that isn\'t really important. It\'s the active userbase that is. Of course things could keep going like they are and xbox will remain a distant second for the duration, but the possibility is there.
Either way, I have both consoles and it matters very little to me--although, I\'d like to hear from some of the people here if that ever comes to pass.
Truth be told, if I were to put my money on a company, I\'d go with Sony everytime. I\'m merely pointing out that there is a possibility and that total userbase isn\'t the only important factor.