Predictions for PS3 vs 360

i think you already won

I like assholes. They\'re tight and slippery (with lube).

Here is my small prediction and analyses from a gamer who has only played 360 once and besides that hasn\'t played ANYTHING in over 2 years (besides old arcade games in Peru)

Xbox360 - MS has done a great job marketing this thing. You guys and almost all gamers have said "what a screwed up launch" but everyone wants an XBox, and they continue to sell out, despite having few units. This is 5 months after launch and they are still selling out ALL over in the US everytime they get on shelves. I have gone with a friend looking for them and they are very tough. I saw 4 or 5 at a Walmart one day and I went there the day after and they were all gone. We asked the guy to call the other stores, he went looking for a 360 and they were all sold out in every store, and there are like 6 or 7 Walmarts in Omaha. I am sure they would like to have more systems out all the time, but they have kept up the demand part of the launch very nicely, now just get the supply out before the PS3 comes out. That is going to be the tough part. They are going to sell no less than 300k averaged out for the rest of the year for a chance to end up this generation close to PS3. They will also need high profile third party exclusives and well-timed first party offerings. Halo 3 is a given someday, and it will be the biggest thing on earth when it comes out, but better this year, and the week before PS3 comes out than later. No better way to squelch demand for another product by releasing a seemingly better product before it. Halo 3 will be better than anything available on the PS3 at launch, this would be a given, shown by the quality of the previous two games, and it really would be a big coup for MS.

BUTTTTTTTT, MS is banking on Gears of War. I, for one, hope they are right. This better be some amazing game or you can kiss 360\'s shot at the title goodbye. If it is truly a hit and for 2007, MS can work the hype up for Halo 3, etc. I can see MS winning all the way up til 2008, when in 2008 PS3 has been out for over a year in all territories and has had plenty of time for a killer app or 5 to come out, and takes the lead in all markets except for NA. North America will have the lead taken eventually in 2009.

MS is banking on XBox Live and a few high profile titles. Gears of War is the most crucial of all of these. They already have the PC nerds in their pocket now with Oblivion. It is the best selling game in the UK and surely in the USA right now, with what should be a good majority of those sales on the 360. They have the FPS crowd, too. With great sales of CoD2, an average game, selling nearly 1 million copies. Sports fans, Racing fans, etc. Now what is left is the dwindling j-rpg crowd for the 360 and it will cover all genres and cover them well. Maybe not getting a Final Fantasy (XI will be over 3 years old by the time it comes out for the 360!) or a Dragon Quest, but Blue Dragon should by all counts be great and who knows what else. Gears of War is the most crucial game for them at this point. If it is better than Halo on rye, they will have a great generation ahead of them. Maybe not take the lead, but will be happy with the increased sales across the board on the games and the system.

Now, on to PS3.

Someone should ask how well MS has marketed the xbox360 in EU as well though since
1)There are shortages generally even in the US
2)Its easier for MS to market it in the US

Some numbers would help. I am curious really to see how well its doing in Europe.

PS3 is interesting.

Sony is really banking on HD on this one, it seems. I just can\'t believe that too many americans (or anyone, for that matter) have enough HDTVs to care at this point. It is still a growing market and I believe few sales will be for the much touted Bluray playback. At least not until 2008 when HDTVs have a much larger percentage share, but then again, at that point, BR players will be cheaper and have faster drives, more options, better quality, etc. The games for PS3 will be better looking and should have the same capability of the 360 games speaking about online stuff, but I don\'t think that for all SOny does, they will be able to match the users on XBL, a big cash cow for MS (the only one in regards to their games division, I would think). But Sony will most likely have third party exclusives like the last time, and they will be high quality games. I predict a great launch for PS3. It will sell tons and will be the same or a bit higher than 360\'s sales in all areas but NA until 2008, when it will most likely take over there, too.

I would say that Sony is actually in the tightest spot. They aren\'t going to have Japan wide open to themselves anymore, it appears. I am not talking about 360, that is almost (ok, it really is) a lost cause in Japan, but I believe the Revolution is going to do amazingly in Japan, and only OK in the other markets. This will make for many japanese developers to release their games on Revolution, despite the differences, and make interesting (due to the controller) content for the rev. In all markets, Sony will have a ton of competition, too. I don\'t think it will be easy for them this time. If they are arrogant and it turns out that the PS3 is not as good as it is cracked up to be, it might very well end up in second.

Biggest Weapon for Japan - Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. If another system aquires these games, Sony is done for as far as being number one in all areas.  Gran Turismo isn\'t all the rage anymore, neither is Gran Turismo. Sure they both will move millions of units, but they don\'t have the same sway they once did. It isn\'t likely now that MS will have several millions of units of 360 on the market that Take2 would be dumb enough to make it PS3 console exclusive, though. Tony Hawk is dead as a console selling franchise, as well as Tomb Raider, all former Sony exclusives, all killing the EXTRA push that PS2 had against the competition. There isn\'t a contract signed with anyone, and that will definitely hurt a few console sales, too. Biggest games: FFXIII, Dragon Quest IX, Gran Turismo 5, and other sequels. I haven\'t heard of too many original licenses created for PS3 yet, but it is still early and much time left to develop more original stuff, surely the biggest game for PS3 will be the one that is unannounced and completely new IP. :P

and onto the Rev.

REV -

This system is going to own, but I think only for a second-system basis. It will steal sales from other systems, I believe, but it\'s highest selling afairs will be from Nintendo. Huge sales in Japan if done right, great sales everywhere else it\'s first couple of years, after that, completely falling apart (like the GC) unless Nintendo can keep a steady stream of games (quality of course, but then again, that isn\'t usually a problem with Nintendo) and get other creative studios to make games exclusively for the gyro controller.

Key games - Zelda, Mario (especially at launch, if it is at launch, say hello to HUGE launch), SSBM online.

I would like to make a note to Living-in-Clip about the killer app thing. PS2 had no killer app at launch, it is true, but XBox did. XBox single-handedly made itself viable and the 2nd best selling platform in the US with Halo. It was THE killer app until Christmas 2004. This can be seen by looking at a sales chart and seeing how Halo was in the charts for nearly three years always hovering aroudn the top 10.

If Revolution gets something like that, a genuinely clever use of the controller, they might just have a shot at some really big success. Perhaps an FPS with the controller would be ace!

Unicron, a poster on GAF said that the 360 is the highest selling console in the UK, selling around 10-15k consoles (with spikes when new shipments come in) every week. I have heard it is doing really well in Germany, too. A few weeks back, a chart was posted with GRAW on top of the lists in France, I think, too.

I wish we had more hard facts, but it seems it is doing really well in everywhere except Japan.

Seems it could be doing great there as well then.

Nice points btw

I think there is a typo though in your PS3 prediction

"Gran Turismo isn\'t all the rage anymore, neither is Gran Turismo"

Which is the other game?

oops, I meant to say Gran Theft Auto for the second one. I mean, I am sure it will still sell millions worldwide where ever it is, but there are alot of successful imitators on the market (50 Cent\'s game supposedly sold more than a million in the US alone!) and it is quite possible that it will be multiplatform this time.

Indeed.

My hopes mostly rely on games like Lair,1-8 ,Warhawk, Motorstorm(although the tech demo was far from target render quality) and Killzone to become the newly original(-ish) established titles on the PS3.

The Playstation brand is almost fed up from sequels.

I doubt Motorstorm will be a hugely popular game based on the theme, but Killzone could be the big one, it sold well on PS2 and if it is a AAA game on PS3 with great online support, it will sell millions and push tons of consoles. I-8 looks great, too. Warhawk could be great, any idea what it is doing about online support? I still have the first one on PSX!

No idea. I think nothing was mentioned about Warhawk\'s online support

Wow, intelligent input.

REV -

This system is going to own, but I think only for a second-system basis. It will steal sales from other systems, I believe, but it\'s highest selling afairs will be from Nintendo. Huge sales in Japan if done right, great sales everywhere else it\'s first couple of years, after that, completely falling apart (like the GC) unless Nintendo can keep a steady stream of games (quality of course, but then again, that isn\'t usually a problem with Nintendo) and get other creative studios to make games exclusively for the gyro controller.

Key games - Zelda, Mario (especially at launch, if it is at launch, say hello to HUGE launch), SSBM online.

I would like to make a note to Living-in-Clip about the killer app thing. PS2 had no killer app at launch, it is true, but XBox did. XBox single-handedly made itself viable and the 2nd best selling platform in the US with Halo. It was THE killer app until Christmas 2004. This can be seen by looking at a sales chart and seeing how Halo was in the charts for nearly three years always hovering aroudn the top 10.

If Revolution gets something like that, a genuinely clever use of the controller, they might just have a shot at some really big success. Perhaps an FPS with the controller would be ace!

I think you\'re under estimating the power of Revolution\'s new controller. The majority of the system\'s buyers will buy it simply because of that. Which means the more traditional approaches of Sony and MS will have no appeal to them whatsoever. Hard core people will have it as a 2nd system, but there are a lot more "soft core" people than hard core. A helluva lot more.

DS shows this quite conclusively. No one thought it had a shade of a chance against the PSP, but it\'s owning it purdy good. Revolution will parrallel the DS with its ownage of X360 and PS3. Complete and utter ownage.

there\'s a ton of people that will not buy the rev because of its gimmick controller.

expect (in sales) PS3 > rev > 360