Right now, both blu-ray and HD-DVD are tanking, with HD-DVD players outselling BR players by about 33%. The numbers are so low, however, that the PS3 vs 360 HD-DVD addon will probably be the deciding factor in the near future, with overall prices/quality being the deciding factor by the end of next year.
My prediction is that HD-DVD will continue to outsell BR (price) until the PS3s release, which will give BR the lead and a big boost. At that point, I think it will be BR\'s race to loose, if they don\'t move to better codecs and take advantage of BR\'s better specs.